Lineage W SEA's first 7 days built a solid foundation - 676K installs (80.8% of plan), healthy real-user retention (RR1 40.3%, above L2M), payer value near plan (ARPPU 92.7% of KPI) and a working webshop model (92% of revenue). Revenue closed at $478.6K, 21.9% of KPI: bot-filtered new users reached 30.5% of plan and daily paying users 23.7%. The week-2 plan attacks this gap from four sides: fix the onboarding funnel, strengthen monetization for low and mid spenders, restart user inflow with sustained content, and protect the VIP and server cores that carry over half of revenue.

What Went Well

✔Acquisition delivered: paid installs 100% of UA plan, pre-launch installs +30% vs plan, total installs 80.8%.

✔Payer value near plan: ARPPU 92.7% of KPI, 49% higher than L2M's first week.

✔Real-user retention is stable: RR1 40.3%, PC cohorts hold at ~60%.

✔The webshop model works: 92% of revenue runs through webshop.

✔Reached 1.2M pre-registrations. Offline branding for the 3 showcases hit its VIP-acquisition target.

What Needs Fixing

⚠Revenue reached only 21.9% of plan: bot-filtered NRU only 30.5% and paying users only 23.7% of plan; PU rate only 71% of target.

⚠Platform mismatch: PC makes ~65% of revenue from only ~22% of new users; Android brings 76% of installs but only 14% of revenue - low Android spending power drags PU and ARPPU.

⚠Onboarding loses ~94% of installs before Level 20 (12GB CDN); app rating only 2.7 stars.

⚠Organic reached only 34% of the expected target.

⚠Half of DAU comes from paid traffic; revenue concentrates in 100 VIPs and 4 servers (of 48 total); 8 top VIPs left the game over in-game issues during the first 7 days.

Direction - Week 2

►Release the optimized game builds addressing onboarding churn points, and run the App Rating promotion.

►Improve the early-game experience and roll out the new BM to monetize low and mid spenders.

►Minimize the UA budget while the game is optimized; concentrate on effective channels (ASA, event-optimized campaigns driving NRU and PU); focus on the PC channel and the TH/VN markets.

►Run events on social channels (which could not run before launch) to drive viral interaction, engagement and organic users.

►Add more webshop pack variety to improve PU among low and mid paying users.

►Operate the VIP fast-lane.

►Rolling forecast May-Dec 2026: $5.94M revenue on 1.02M installs.

The launch brought in a large user base - 676K installs (80.8% of plan) - and payers spent close to plan (ARPPU 92.7% of KPI). However, 7-day revenue reached $478.6K, 21.9% of the $2.18M KPI: bot-filtered new users came in at 30.5% of plan and daily paying users at 23.7%. The main task now is bringing in and converting more real users into payers.

Table 2.1 - Total Performance vs KPI (All Markets, 23 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD)

Analysis. Acquisition started strong: pre-launch installs beat plan (289.9K vs 223.6K, +29.7%) and total installs reached 80.8% of plan. The gap opens after install: bot-filtered new users reached only 30.5% of plan, daily paying users 23.7%, and PU rate 4.49% vs the 6.32% target (71%). Payer value held up - ARPPU reached 92.7% of target ($32.52 vs $35.10). Daily revenue fell from $152K (D1) to $26K (D7), so the gap widens every day until more real users arrive and start paying.

Most users never reach the monetization point. The low PU rate is not because the game fails to engage the players who stay - ARPPU at 92.7% of plan shows payers spend willingly - but because most users leave before they reach the paying stage.

Table 2.2 - Performance by Market vs KPI (WITH BOTS, 23 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD)

Note: *Others RR exceeds 100% - tracking artifact; excluded from analysis. Mkt Cost, Install, NRU, RR have no bot split in source data and appear only in this table.

Analysis. In the with-bots view, only SG changes materially: non-organic traffic lifts SG to 13x its NRU plan and 10x its DAU plan, while its quality metrics stay the lowest in SEA (ARPPU 63.0% of plan, PU rate 1.00%). For the other five markets the ranking stays the same in both views, so cross-market conclusions hold. This table also carries the metrics that have no bot split - install, NRU and cost: install delivery ranges from 45.7% (MY) to 89.4% (VN) of combined plan.

Table 2.3 - Performance by Market vs KPI (NON-BOT, 27 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD)

Note: Bot-filtered reference view (source provides Revenue, DAU, PU, ARPPU only; PU Rate = Avg PU / Avg DAU, both filtered). KPI evaluation follows the data rule in Table 1.

Analysis. On clean data, TH and ID give the best return for new investment: both earn above plan per payer (ARPPU 123.6% and 122.8% of KPI, total) but sit near the bottom on revenue achievement (13.9%, 16.6%) because their user bases came in small - each new user there brings above-target revenue. VN is the opposite: the largest real user base (12.2K avg DAU) but the lowest ARPPU (76.0% of KPI, total) and the lowest big-four RR1 (31.0%); the volume is there, the spending is not, so VN needs conversion work before more scale. MY is small but healthy - the best retention in the region (RR1 35.6%, RR3 28.5%) and ARPPU at 170.8% of plan (total); it only lacks install volume. The bot filter removes 60.9% of SG revenue ($102.6K to $40.1K) - $62.5K of the $105.4K filtered revenue sits in SG alone - and non-bot SG DAU stays flat at ~10-11K daily while every other market declines, so SG numbers stay on hold until Analytics confirms the filter. PH is the most balanced market (ARPPU 111.6% of KPI, total) and mainly needs scale.

VN acquisition is not yet optimized: 71.9% of VN installs are Android, but VN Android ARPPU is $9.79 with 15.8% RR1 - broad Android targeting pulls volume users with little intent to pay. VN PC (9.7% of installs) is where the real players are: 75% of VN revenue at ~$31 ARPPU. This is a targeting issue, not a market issue.

Daily Trends - 7 Days by Market

Daily movement of the core metrics, following the data rule (Revenue/PU/ARPPU: total; NRU/DAU: bot-filtered).

All Market

Trend: revenue and PU fall together all week (revenue -83% by D7) while DAU only halves - the base stays but pays less. ARPPU halves after D2; PU rate holds at 3.4-5.8% with a D3 peak when the starter packs went live.

VN

Trend: steepest revenue fall of the big four (-89% by D7); the D3 PU-rate peak (7.5%) comes from the starter packs but ARPPU drops to ~$12-14 - VN pays small after launch day.

TH

Trend: best revenue tail - still $8.3K on D7 (18% of D1) and the highest daily ARPPU in SEA ($78 on D1, $41 on D7). PU volume is small and falling; payer-depth offers fit this market.

ID

Trend: revenue re-accelerates on D4 ($14.2K, ARPPU $61) - the clearest event response in SEA; new-user inflow drops fastest after D2.

PH

Trend: small but steady - ARPPU $16-30 and PU rate stable around 4-5% all week; the issue is volume, not behavior.

SG

Trend: DAU stays flat at ~10-11K all week while every other market declines - an unusual pattern, pending the bot-filter check; revenue still falls (-72% by D7).

MY

Trend: tiny base with high ARPPU ($25-55); D6 shows a +137% day-over-day revenue bump - small cohorts swing hard.

Next Steps

1. Concentrate D8-D14 LiveOps and first-purchase offers (3 small starter packs added on 29/5) on converting the existing NRU base into payers.
2. Reduce the UA budget; keep only paid branding toward current users while the game optimizes onboarding and the new-player experience.
3. Optimize early-game monetization to raise the paying rate before scaling budget again.
4. Optimize the build to improve the user funnel and tutorial, raising NRU rate and reducing drop-off before level 43.

Paid UA hit its install plan (440K paid installs, 100% of plan) at pCPI $3.27. Organic installs only reached 34% of plan, so total installs ended at 63%. Paid ROAS is 8.2% - most revenue still comes from organic users. Two items would help the most in week 2: making the Android first download lighter, and bringing the app rating back up. Both are being worked on with NC.

Table 3.1 - UA Summary vs Plan (23 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD)

Note: Plan baselines follow the UA team's targets. Install % vs plan differs from Section 02 (80.8%) because the two sections use different plan baselines; to be aligned in the review round.

Analysis. Paid delivery was on target and CPI stayed within plan. The gap is organic: after launch day, organic installs dropped from 64K to 7-12K per day because there was not enough branding and KOL content after the opening push. D1 alone made up 54% of the week's organic installs. On revenue: organic users brought $361K (75% of total) while paid spend of $1.44M brought $118K. Week 2 budget should follow the channels that already show returns, see Table 2.

The branding plan was designed to peak at launch day, with no always-on calendar after OB. Organic does not sustain itself - it needs content and community signals to continue. When KOL and PR activity stopped, store visibility and word-of-mouth lost momentum; D1 taking 54% of the week's organic shows the spike came from launch buzz, not sustainable organic growth.

Table 3.2 - Channel Performance (paid, 23 May - 2 Jun, USD)

Analysis. ASA works best: 40.1% ROAS and 63% of installs become players - iOS search reaches people who already know the IP. Google has the lowest CPI ($2.16) but only 18.6% of its installs reach the game, so its volume campaigns are reaching users with low intent. Facebook is mid on both. TikTok is the weakest (CPI $8.31, ROAS 3.2%) and should be scaled down. Best single combo: Google in TH (51% ROAS).

Table 3.3 - Campaign Type (UA team cut, OB campaigns, USD)

Analysis. Campaigns optimized for in-game events get players cheaper than campaigns optimized for installs: AEO-CDN pays $7.55 per player, MAI pays $16.60. The team already shifted mid-week - after moving budget from MAI to tCPA-NRU, daily %NRU/install went from 30% (D2) back to 41-50% (D3-D7). The Whale lookalike audience test ($314K spend, 1.6% ROAS) shows big spenders are not found by audience targeting; they come in through search and event-optimized campaigns.

Table 3.4 - Two Items With the Biggest Expected Impact

Analysis. Around 70% of Android users stop during the first download, and the early reviews reflect that experience, which then lowers store visibility and organic installs. NC is preparing a build update; once it ships, we will run a rating-recovery campaign. These two items cost less than extra media and help all markets at once.

Next Steps

1. Release the new builds (black-screen fix, skippable intro video).
2. Run the App Rating push after the new builds are live; target SEA 3.5+, VN 3.0+.
3. Reduce budget while the game is optimized. Maintain about $10K daily on what works: maximize ASA, scale AEO-CDN and AEO-PU, phase out MAI, scale down TikTok; focus campaigns on acquiring PC users.
4. For mobile during the maintenance-budget phase: recover organic and run re-engagement only, converting installs that have not yet created an NRU into NRU.
5. Paid branding: boost gameplay content to current active users and page followers; payment-related content boosts go to current users only.
6. Budget split: prioritize VN and TH; run ID and SG light; cut PH and MY to the minimum.

Out of 100 installs, only about 6 users reach Level 20 - the point where players start to spend. Three drop points cause most of the loss: registration on Android (53.4% vs 90.4% on iOS), the 12GB first download (-19pp Android, -25pp iOS), and entering a server after creating a character (-13pp Android, -30pp iOS). Fixes are already moving: skip-intro shipped in v4.6, two new builds for the loading issue are planned this week. On tracking: Firebase and SDK were only ready from 3/6, so week-1 campaigns ran on AppsFlyer events only, which limited Google and iOS optimization.

Table 4.1 - Onboarding Funnel, Install to Level 20 (mobile, 27 May - 3 Jun)

Analysis. The funnel explains the payer gap in Sections 02 and 09: the game converts installs into potential payers at ~6%, so even good acquisition cannot feed monetization yet. Android loses most users before the game even starts - registration is the single biggest drop, linked to loading issues on lower-end devices (high-end devices register at a clearly higher rate). The download barrier hits both platforms. The "joined server" drop is the one to investigate next: these users have already chosen a class and named their character, so they wanted to play - on iOS, 30pp of them stop there. By country, VN and ID have the lowest Android Level-20 rates (2.8% / 3.0%); SG Android shows abnormal completion (43.7% reach Level 20), consistent with the non-organic traffic flagged in Section 02.

The 11GB first download plus loading issues hit low-end devices hardest. Android in SEA (especially VN and ID) has high device fragmentation - many users are on mid-range phones that do not handle the load smoothly. This is a technical barrier, not an intent problem: high-end Android devices register at clearly higher rates.

Table 4.2 - Tracking Status, Week 1

Analysis. Week-1 paid performance (Section 03, paid ROAS 8.2%) should be read with this in mind: the campaigns ran without the standard purchase signals, so part of the low ROAS comes from setup timing, not from the market. Firebase and the SDKs are now live at a basic level, webshop events will come in the next update, and the UA team has started tROAS and PU campaign tests. Week-2 paid results will show how much of the gap was signal-related.

Next Steps

1. Release the onboarding-fix builds (planned week 2); track registration rate before/after.
2. Filter low-end devices on both the store listing and UA campaign targeting for Android.
3. Propose CDN optimization with NC: let players run the tutorial while downloading, with a minimum CDN to start the game under 4GB.

Branding delivered decent reach before launch in views: 879M fanpage views, 304M YouTube views, and all three showcases beat their VIP attendance targets, contributing to 1.2M pre-registrations. But branding activity was not large enough to support UA (only 3 showcases, 1 TVC, and PR focused on TH/VN/ID), reflected in organic reaching only 34% of target. From OB day there was no branding activity, leaving a gap right after launch: most branding ended before 9 May 2026; from OB only small KOC livestreams remained, and organic fell 81% from D2.

Table 5.1 - Branding Reach Summary (up to 3-4 Jun 2026)

Analysis. Views were decent and on-brand across all six markets. Short videos drove most of the volume - average view duration of 11-13 seconds means the content served awareness well, but it did not create deep engagement. PR has $5K of budget remaining. However, there was no localized branding activity tailored to each market.

Table 5.2 - Showcases & KOL/KOC (VN 18/4, ID 25/4, TH 9/5)

Analysis. Execution met requirements: every planned KOL attended, every post aired, and all three events met or beat their VIP targets. The earned media is the best signal - 60 organic posts versus 51 paid means creators and media shared content on their own, especially in VN. National TV coverage in VN and the 150% turnout in TH show the IP still has real pull in SEA. These events supported the 1.2M pre-registrations.

Table 5.3 - Branding Impact on the Launch Campaign

Analysis. The pattern is simple: when branding was active, organic followed; when the calendar ended, organic dropped. This is the main lesson of week 1 - the branding plan was built to peak at launch day and it did, but the launch window needs content for 2-4 weeks after OB, not only before. The unused PR budget and the existing creator network (28 KOLs already engaged) make this fixable quickly without new budget approval.

Next Steps

1. Adjust KOC content toward the in-game content that needs promotion; negotiate to reserve the booked KOC air slots and re-run them once the game is optimized to standard.

TH and ID combine above-plan payer value with healthy retention - they are the markets to prioritize. VN has the largest user base but the weakest monetization - fix before scaling. PH/MY are sound niche plays; SG data is unreliable until the bot filter is validated. At platform level, PC generates 65% of revenue with double-mobile retention; Android delivers 76% of installs but only 14% of revenue.

Data rule: Revenue, PU, ARPPU = total numbers; DAU, NRU = bot-filtered; RR = bot-filtered. Install figures: tracking (no split available). Marketing cost is excluded from this section due to data accuracy issues.

Table 6.1 - Market Scorecard (27 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD; Rev/PU/ARPPU total, DAU/NRU/RR bot-filtered)

Analysis. TH leads revenue (27.8% share) on a small real DAU base thanks to $48.31 ARPPU and the steadiest revenue tail (D7 = 18% of D1, vs 11% for VN). SG posts the second-largest revenue (21.4%) but its traffic is still pending the bot-filter check, so we read it with care. ID has the best retention of the big four plus above-plan ARPPU - its users stay and pay; revenue also picked up again mid-week (D4 $14.2K > D3 $11.4K), so the market responds to events. VN has the largest NRU pool (42.8K) but the lowest big-four ARPPU ($25.71) and the steepest revenue drop (-89% D1 to D7). PH retains well on D1 but has the lowest RR7 (6.6%) - players there drop off within the first week. MY has the best per-user quality, at a small scale. Others RR is a tracking artifact and excluded.

Lineage W is a PC-heritage game brought to mobile: the current monetization design (large Dia bundles, endgame competition) fits PC and high-spender behavior best. The mobile mass market needs additional conversion mechanics (entry packs, daily rewards) - a gap now being addressed with the new BM under preparation (Section 12).

Table 6.2 - Platform Overview (27 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD; Rev/PU/ARPPU total, DAU/RR bot-filtered)

Analysis. PC is the revenue engine: 65% of revenue with double-mobile retention at every depth - the core Lineage audience lives here - yet PC brings only ~22% of bot-filtered new users. iOS pays big and leaves fast: top ARPPU ($48.00), weakest retention (RR7 5.0%) - payback relies on early monetization, which is working. Android is the volume engine with a conversion gap: 76% of installs and ~57% of filtered new users, healthy retention (RR1 39.5%), but only 14.3% of revenue at $16.41 ARPPU - low spending power on Android pulls overall PU and ARPPU down.

Table 6.3 - Platform Mix by Country (WITH BOTS, 23 May - 2 Jun 2026, USD)

Note: UA cost tracked on mobile only. PC cost is not yet tracked; PC installs are predominantly web/organic-attributed (98.6%).

Analysis. VN's gap sits in Android: 71.9% of VN installs produce 6.9% of its revenue ($9.79 ARPPU, 15.8% RR1), while VN PC earns 75% of country revenue from 9.7% of installs - VN campaigns are reaching users who rarely pay. Most TH revenue (82.5%) comes from iOS and PC; TH iOS ARPPU ($64.28) is the strongest mobile figure in the region. ID iOS is a small but very high-value group: $110.73 ARPPU on only 2.7% of installs. SG's unusual numbers can be narrowed down: Android (RR1 78.1%) and PC carry the non-organic pattern, while SG iOS looks normal - the filter check should focus on those two.

Market Verdicts

Brief questions answered: Add events? Yes, targeted by failure mode: conversion events in VN, payer-depth in TH, retention hooks in PH, cadence scaling in ID. Reduce marketing cost? Cannot be assessed in this section - cost tracking data is not yet reliable; revisit once validated.

Next Steps

1. Shift acquisition priority toward TH and ID, where users stay and pay above plan; re-review at D14.
2. Launch market-specific events per failure mode (VN conversion, TH payer-depth, PH retention, ID cadence).
3. Restructure VN acquisition toward iOS/PC funnels; tighten Android targeting to payer lookalikes.
4. Grow the PC channel region-wide (PC-side events, launcher stability, mobile-to-PC cross-promotion) and set up PC cost tracking.
5. Scale ID iOS acquisition against the $110.73 ARPPU whale segment.
6. Commission VN early-game economy review before further scale.
7. Analytics to validate SG bot filter (Android + PC) and overall cost tracking; freeze SG changes until resolved.

Real-user retention is solid and stable - non-bot RR1 averages ~40% per cohort all week. The problem is new-user inflow: D1 brought 57% of the week's new users, D7 only 3%. Also, half of all active accounts are already level 40+ after 7 days, so high-level players will need new content soon. The next risks are new-user inflow and content for high-level players, not early churn.

All figures non-bot. Non-bot NRU (148,918) differs from the with-bots tracking NRU in Section 02 (398,151) by design. Level data: snapshot 3 Jun, active accounts, may include farmer accounts.

Table 8.1 - Daily NRU & Cohort Retention, All Markets Non-Bot (27 May - 2 Jun 2026)

RR7 (D1 cohort): 13.7%. Note: the Total row includes SG and Others, where the bot filter is still being validated; the big-four markets individually range 29-33% RR1 (Section 06).

Analysis: cohort RR1 stays in the 38-46% range all week (the D7 cohort dips to 31.9%, but on a small base) - a quite healthy level for an MMORPG launch - and RR3 holds at 20-25%, so users stick at the same rate no matter which day they arrive. 

Table 8.2 - RR1 by Cohort by Platform, Non-Bot

Analysis. PC retention is the strongest and the most stable - every cohort returns at ~60% no matter which day they arrived, which fits the core Lineage audience on PC (Section 06). Mobile cohorts get weaker late in the week: Android's D7 cohort drops to 29.5% and iOS slides from 33.6% to 18.6%, a sign that later installs come from users with lower interest as paid campaigns reach wider audiences. iOS has the region's highest ARPPU but the weakest retention (RR7 5.0%), so early offers matter most there. Country-level retention detail is in Section 06 (ID best of the big four; PH lowest at RR7).

Table 8.3 - Level Distribution of Active Accounts (snapshot 3 Jun, 65,342 accounts)

Analysis. Players are leveling very fast: after 7 days, 52% of active accounts are level 40+ and 9.6% are already past 45, while the level 10-29 bands are nearly empty (8.0%) - players either commit and push forward, or leave before level 30. The big group at 40-44 (42.4%) marks the current progression wall; these players will need new content within 1-2 weeks, so the D14-D30 content and event calendar is the most important item to prepare with NC. One caveat: the snapshot includes farmer accounts, which usually sit at farming-friendly levels and likely inflate the 40-44 band - the world patterns support this (Aden 58.5% at 40+, vs Eva 39.4% with a 34.7% sub-30 share from its late player wave).

Next Steps

1. Improve organic NRU: push re-engagement from D8 toward installs that have not yet created an NRU.
2. Prepare the level-40+ content and event calendar for D14-D30 before churn.

Communities grew fast in week 1 - Discord +660% to 5,683 members with 71.4% retention, Facebook groups at 9,369 members, PH growing fastest (+30.3%) - and overall sentiment stayed positive. Three complaints repeat in every market: low drop rates for regular players, early-quest difficulty, and bots.

Table 11.1 - Community Size & Growth (D7)

Analysis. Community infrastructure is forming well and at low cost - PH shows a very collaborative community on the smallest media budget, and Discord retention above 70% means people who join stay. VN dominates by size; MY barely has a community yet, which matches its small player base (Section 06): MY players report they cannot find each other in game.

Table 11.2 - Sentiment by Market

Table 11.3 - Most Repeated Issues (all markets, D1-D7)

Analysis. The community's top three complaints line up with the data sections: bots (Sections 02/06), thin servers (Section 07), and the difficulty/drop-rate concerns that show up in both early churn (Section 08) and VIP exits (Section 10).

Next Steps

1. Launch weekly giftcoupons + mini events (check-in, quiz, share-moment) to give players a reason to return to social channels.
2. Launch out-game events: Blood Pledge Program, UGC contest, War Leader of SEA, achievement hall-of-fame, and a weekly community bulletin.
3. Send regular reminders for the top-race program.
4. Build a pinned beginner FAQ per market (Trade Market, W Membership, morph tickets, server reset times).

5 Good Points

✔Acquisition delivered: 676K installs (80.8% of KPI); paid installs hit 100% of the UA plan; pre-launch installs beat plan by 29.7%.

✔Payer value near plan: ARPPU $32.5 = 92.7% of KPI, 49% higher than L2M's first week; TH and ID monetize above plan per payer.

✔Real-user retention is stable: RR1 40.3% (bot-filtered), above L2M (36.6%); PC cohorts hold at ~60%.

✔The webshop model works: 92% of revenue runs through webshop; starter packs created 3,475 first-time payers (35% of weekly payers).

✔Reached 1.2M pre-registrations; offline branding for the 3 showcases hit its VIP-acquisition target.

Key Improving Points

⚠Revenue reached only 21.9% of plan: bot-filtered NRU only 30.5% and paying users only 23.7% of plan; PU rate only 71% of target.

⚠Platform mismatch: PC makes ~65% of revenue from only ~22% of new users; Android brings 76% of installs but only 14% of revenue.

⚠Onboarding loses ~94% of installs before Level 20 (12GB CDN); app rating only 2.7 stars. The bot restriction methods have had a heavy impact on real users, resulting in a poor experience during the early and mid-game stages (level 1 to level 49)

⚠Organic reached only 34% of the expected target; half of DAU comes from paid traffic.

⚠Revenue concentrates in 100 VIPs and 4 servers (of 48); 8 top VIPs left over in-game issues in the first 7 days; 22 of 48 servers rated Danger.

Approach - Week 2+

►1. Minimize the budget (around less than $10K per day) to maintain current active users, while keeping the focus on optimizing the game to have a better user funnel, early user experience, and PU growth.

►2. After each optimization, use a small UA budget to test and see if there's improvement.

►3. Once the game funnel is good enough (we can benchmark with L2M), scale up the budget again and run KOC streaming campaigns and cashback activities.

►4. While waiting for game optimization, the most important thing is to keep current active users engaged through social events and new game content.

Key Direction by Team

LW launched at a smaller scale than L2M - about two thirds of the installs and one quarter of the revenue (24.4%) on a similar UA budget - but with better quality per user: higher retention (RR1 40.3% vs 36.6% non-bot), higher ARPPU ($32.5 vs $21.8), and a cleaner front-loaded spend. The main gap is payer conversion: L2M turned 8% of daily users into payers, LW 4.4%. The lessons: protect what LW does better (retention, payer value, PC channel), and close the conversion and opening-wave gaps.

L2M: 20-26 May 2025. LW: 27 May - 2 Jun 2026 (installs/cost include pre-launch 23-26 May). L2M cost from the team's 7D summary sheet. Both games had heavy non-organic traffic; non-bot rows are the cleaner comparison.

Table 14.1 - Head to Head, First 7 Days (USD)

Note: *L2M PU and revenue were not affected by its bot filter (bots there did not pay); LW non-bot uses the filtered revenue source.

Analysis. Three things stand out. First, scale: L2M opened with a much bigger wave - 539K installs and 233K non-bot NRU on day 1, versus LW's 166K installs and 84K NRU - on a similar UA budget. L2M benefited from a lighter first download and a bigger reroll/multi-account culture (its NRU exceeded installs; about half of L2M accounts never passed level 1), so raw L2M volume overstates real players, but even on clean numbers its opening was 2-3x larger. Second, quality: LW users are better users - they stay more (RR1 40.3% vs 36.6%) and pay more per payer ($32.5 vs $21.8). Third, conversion: L2M converted 8% of daily users into payers, LW converts 4.4% - this, not user quality, is why LW revenue is one quarter of L2M's. LW also leaned harder on launch day (31.8% of week revenue on D1 vs 23.7%), meaning L2M kept its paying base active longer into the week.

Table 14.2 - Structure Comparison (non-bot)

Analysis. The structural pattern repeats across both launches: PC carries the high-value core, bots take about half of raw DAU, and a small spender group carries revenue. LW's heavier dependence on its top 100 makes VIP care (Section 10) more important than it was in L2M. The PC strength in both games supports the Section 06 recommendation to keep investing in the PC channel.

Key Lessons for LW Week 2+

1. The payer-conversion gap is the number one lesson: L2M reached 8% PU rate in week 1. LW should study what L2M's early offer and event cadence did differently and apply it to the D8-D30 plan (links to Sections 02/09).
2. L2M held revenue deeper into the week; LW needs mid-week spending moments (events, flash offers) instead of relying on the launch spike.
3. LW's retention and ARPPU beat L2M - the game holds its audience. Growth efforts should focus on bringing more users in (inflow, Section 08), not reworking the core game.
4. The first-download barrier likely cost LW part of its opening wave (Section 04); lighter onboarding is a launch-scale lever for any future title.
5. Bots took half of DAU in both launches - plan anti-bot capacity as a standard launch workstream from day 1, not a reaction.